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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence receives the award. However, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the current competition is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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