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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd